태그 글 보관함:Hindsight

Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.

Notes that a major difference between historical and nonhistorical judgment is that the historical judge typically knows how things turned out. 3 experiments are described with a total of 479 college students. In Exp I, receipt of such outcome knowledge was found to increase the postdicted likelihood of reported events and change the perceived relevance …

더 보기 “Fischhoff, B. (1975). Hindsight is not equal to foresight: The effect of outcome knowledge on judgment under uncertainty.”

Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107(3), 311-327.

The hindsight bias is the tendency for people with outcome knowledge to believe falsely that they would have predicted the reported outcome of an event. This article reviews empirical research relevant to hindsight phenomena. The influence of outcome knowledge, termed creeping determinism, was initially hypothesized to result from the immediate and automatic integration of the …

더 보기 “Hawkins, S. A., & Hastie, R. (1990). Hindsight: Biased judgments of past events after the outcomes are known. Psychological Bulletin, 107(3), 311-327.”