In 5 studies with overlapping designs and intents, Ss predicted a specific peer’s responses to a variety of stimulus situations, each of which offered a pair of mutually exclusive and exhaustive response alternatives. Each prediction was accompanied by a subjective probability estimate reflecting the Ss’ confidence in its accuracy—a measure validated in Study 5 by …
Tag Archives: overconfident
Vallone, R. P., Griffin, D. W., Lin, S., & Ross, L. (1990). Overconfident prediction of future actions and outcomes by self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 58(4), 582-592.
In a follow-up study to D. Dunning et al (see record 1990-22524-001), which had investigated the phenomenon of overconfidence in social prediction, two samples of first-year undergraduates were invited to make predictions about their own future responses (and, in the case of Sample 2, also those of their roommates) over the months ahead. These predictions …
Griffin, D. W., Dunning, D., & Ross, L. (1990). The role of construal processes in overconfident predictions about the self and others. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 59(6), 1128-1139.
Overconfident behavioral predictions and trait inferences may occur because people make inadequate allowance for the uncertainties of situational construal. In Studies 1–3, Ss estimated how much time or money they would spend in various hypothetical, incompletely specified situations. Ss then offered associated “confidence limits” under different “construal conditions.” In Study 4, Ss made trait inferences …